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Hurricane Forcasting
2014 Updates
Hurricane Forcasting 2014
For 2014 hurricane forecasting has some good news- numbers of hurricanes and named storms are expected to be down this year due to the development of El Nino in the Pacific and other factors. However, it only takes one storm to ruin your day!

One of the more interesting developments in hurricane research is the introduction this year of drones for gathering data in a storm itself. Planes have long been used in data intake but are unable to fly at lower altitudes and just over the water. The new drones are released from the hurricane hunter planes through cylinders and the use of collapsible wings.

Research Drone
Hurricane Research Drone

Once released the drones are guided as they glide with the winds until at the surface where planes cannot fly due to unsafe turbulance. The drone information is expected to give the National Hurricane Center better data to determine future tracking and intensity forecasts of the hurricane under observation.

The National Hurricane Center will be putting out graphical forecasting of hurricane and storm potential formation and tracking. These maps will show location, probable track and intensity of a storm.

Five Day Potential Hurricane Forecasts
Five Day Potential Hurricane Forecasts

Another important factor as a storm approaches land is how much storm surge there will be. The National Hurricane center will be releasing graphical maps of potential storm surge where landfall is expected. For expedition yachts this will be a welcome tool for determing whether a dock could become untenable or how much scope for storm dock lines and/or anchors is needed.

Potential Hurricane Surge Forecasts
Potential Hurricane Surge Forecasts

Once again this year the "Cone of Death" has shrunk. Every year the NHC crunches the data of past years and is able to be better forecasters of storm tracking and intensity allowing the cone to be smaller.

You can follow the NHC on their web site, Twitter and/or Facebook page for the latest in developments and storm forecasting.


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